As the year draws to a close, 2025 could be set to be another challenging period for the retail sector – with inflation still soaring and retailers hit by the impact of Labour’s first fiscal Budget.
Retail Gazette speaks with industry experts to find out their predictions of which retailers will be the winners and losers of 2025.
Nick Bubb
Retailing analyst
Winner: M&S
M&S has been one of the winners of 2024, but it is well placed to build on its recent success in 2025, thanks to its significant investment in creating impressive food halls and the development of a ‘weekly shop’ food range, as well as its stronger multi-channel positioning in clothing.
Loser: B&M
B&M has been one of the losers of 2024, but it looks like it will continue to underperform in 2025, given its inability to match the powerful loyalty card discounts of its supermarket rivals in food and its failure to develop a credible presence in non-food online.
Patrick O’Brien
Research director, Globaldata Retail
Winner: John Lewis
It might seem like it’s in reverse ferret mode since Sharon White left, but John Lewis goes into 2025 on the front foot. The return of its Never Knowingly Undersold promise and the de-emphasis of its cannibalistic Anyday range is re-establishing the department store as a place for quality products at the right price.
Loser: H&M
While value clothing players scramble to fend off the threat of Shein, H&M is reacting with almost Gap-like slouchiness. Primark is more fashionable, Uniqlo does basics better, Shein is cheaper. H&M needs to find a compelling reason for people to shop there.
Susannah Streeter
Head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown
Winner: Marks and Spencer
Marks and Spencer has been making remarkable progress with its ranges, which have tickled the fancy of shoppers, leading to some impressive revenue growth. Its core customers have been more insulated from cost-of-living headwinds, but they’ll still have an eye on trimming costs. Clothing and home has made some impressive strides and sales growth reflects improved customer perceptions of value, quality, and style. What is particularly impressive is that over 80% of M&S’s clothing has sold at full price – which is much higher than most of its rivals. Profitability dipped slightly in the first half – due to investment in digital platforms but this is positioning the company more resilient for future growth.
Key customer metrics and profits have been trending in the wrong direction at Boohoo and although there is a plan in place aimed at turning things around, big challenges lie ahead in 2025. The situation has prompted major shareholder Mike’s Ashley’s Frasers Group to try and gain two board seats at the company. Boohoo’s board has already rebuffed attempts to install Mike Ashley as CEO. They are instead counting on Dan Finley, with his successful track record at Boohoo’s Debenhams online business, to turn the company’s fortunes around.
Kate Calvert
Head of retail and consumer research, Investec
Winner: Watches of Switzerland
After a more difficult 2024, Watches is well positioned to take advantage of a market recovery in 2025. Brands are back launching more appealing mid-priced range and watches has a number of exciting new projects opening, including the long awaited Rolex flagship on Bond Street. In addition, we expect strong growth to come through in pre-owned and luxury jewellery.
Loser: Boohoo
Boohoo’s underperformance has caught the attention of Frasers Group. We expect 2025 to be another challenging year for the group and are concerned about the general health of a number of Boohoo’s brands given the inroads Shein and others are making into its territory. Turnaround stories are rarely straightforward, take time and are not without risk.
Catherine Shuttleworth
Savvy Marketing CEO
Winner: Primark
Under the smart leadership of Paul Marchant the Primark business continues to grow internationally through a strong strategy and comprehensive roll out programme. In the UK their growth continues with customer appetite for their offer resilient. In high streets across the UK where other retailers have long deserted shoppers Primark continues to surprise and delight.
Loser: Boohoo
Internal wrangling and debt repayments aside, the group is struggling to connect its brands with shoppers. As the original shoppers grow up they aren’t being replaced by the next generation of shoppers and they seem to have lost their ability to connect with them.
